I.         
Background

1.           
Technologies of Industrial
Revolution are
blurring the lines between the physical, digital and biological spheres globally.
The current pace of technological development is exerting profound changes on
the way people live and work. It is impacting all disciplines, economies and
industries, including how, what, why and where individuals produce and deliver
products and services. However, amid overcharged media headlines and political
and social landscapes, business and government leaders find it difficult not
only to have an accurate understanding of where these technologies can create
real value, but also to successfully focus on the appropriate and timely
investments and policies needed to unlock that value.

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2.           
These technologies are obliging
companies to rethink and retool everything they do internally, and governments
to reassess their national competitive advantages and development strategies.
The chief executives and chief operating officers who embrace these
technologies and rapidly transform their enterprises will set their companies
on course for success.

 

3.           
Within the broader technology
landscape, five technologies are transforming businesses and unleashing a new
wave of competition among producers and countries alike. Exciting advances in
the internet of things are artificial intelligence, advanced robotics,
wearables and 3D printing. Technology is expected to disrupt most traditional
industries in the next 5-10 years. Some recent examples which shows how
technology has impacted business:

Ø  Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now
the biggest taxi company in the world

Ø  Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although
they don’t own any properties.  

 

II.           
Expected
Impact on business with evolving Technology in next 10 years

 

4.           
The
future impact on certain business sectors may be seen below:

 

      i.       
Artificial
Intelligence: In the US, young lawyers already don’t get
jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less
basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when
done by humans. There will be 90% less
lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. 

   
ii.       
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing
cancer, four times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has pattern
recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers are likely to become
more intelligent than humans.

   iii.       
In 2018, the first self-driving cars will
appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. By next 10 years, one may not want to own a car anymore. Individuals
shall call a car with phone which will show up at the pick-up location and
drive to the destination. There will be no need of parking spots and money
shall only be paid for the driven distance. This way, individuals can be
productive while driving. Therefore, the concept of driving license and owing a
car is going to be eradicated within the next few years. This is likely to
change the way cities function in terms of mobility. The former parking spacescan
be converted into parks. Nearly 1.3 million people die in
road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day1. Autonomous
driving shall reduce the road accidents and has the potential to save a million
lives each year.

   iv.       
Most car companies will probably become
bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just
build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

    v.       
Insurance companies will have massive trouble
because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car
insurance business model will disappear.

   vi.       
Real estate will change. The reason is simple
enough. If an individual can work while commuting, people will move in a more
beautiful neighborhood away from the city.

  vii.       
Health:  The Tricorder X price will be announced this
year. In next 10 years there are companies who will build a medical device
(called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone,
which takes retina scan, blood sample and breath into it. It then analyses 54
biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few
years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis,
nearly for free. The business of medical establishment is going to crash.

viii.       
Education:  The cheapest smart phones are already at $10
in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That
means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Educational
institution’s profitability is on a verge of sharp decline

 

5.           
There is a clear signal to the world that climate change risk will lead
to a scary future. In some parts of the world, the climate change has already
begun in daily life for e.g. the recent snow storm in North America in January
2018 has caused widespread unrest and destroyed infrastructure of various
cities. While in other parts, there is a future warning for tougher times, for
instance, the severe melting of Antarctic ice under future global warming
is likely to adversely impact the world in terms of population, business and
weather. Certain developed economies have already started amending their
business models in terms of climate change.

 

6.           
70-80% of jobs are likely to disappear in the
next 10 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there
will be enough new jobs in such a small time. From
farmers to fisherman, supply chain management to builders, all sectors are
likely to result in layoffs or redundancy in the next ten years with the climate change. The indigenous peoples living in rural
areas are going to bear the brunt of climate change

 

7.           
However, the
agricultural demand is bound to increase. The income growth in emerging market
economies has impacted the food consumption habits i.e., there is a transition
towards higher consumption of meat, fruits and vegetables in comparison to
cereals, thereby adding pressure on natural resources. Though technological
advances have resulted in efficient resource use and improved food safety. But the
fears of global food security cannot be ignored. There are mounting pressures
on natural resources which can jeopardize the sustainability of food systems. The
competition and dependence on natural resources shall increase with the
increased demand for agriculture which shall lead to increased greenhouse gas
emissions, and further deforestation and land degradation. There is a dire need
for innovative solutions  for eneggizing
a sustainable tomorrow. In next 10-15 years there will be a
agricultural robot in the future. Farmers can then become managers of their
field instead of working all day on their fields.

8.           
The climatic
variation can also include
decrease in rainfall, disasters, crop failures, natural hazards and forest
fires. Each sector of the economy shall be severely impacted as the food and
water supplies get destructed. Business such as builders are going to become redundant in the next few years with the climate
change. The number of jobs which shall be created will of those individuals who
can get involved in disaster related building.. Smart technology needs to be introduced for smart cities and smart
farming in rural areas which will cut our dependence on fossil fuesl.  The complicated supply chains of a globalised retail industry
mean that a disruption in one place can cause consequences elsewhere

9.           
Lately, the global focus is diverted to solar
energy worldwide in comparison to fossil. If the emerging market economies are
able to set and achieve solar installation target, cheaper electricity shall be
available. The world has abundant water but there is scarcity of drinking
water. Desalination of salt water requires cost effective electricity, which in
turn, is achievable with solar energy. If the cheaper electricity is available,
individuals may have as clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.  

 

 

1
Source: Road Crash Statistics, 2017